More than just a match, almost a redemption of an entire year of penance. This is how Alexander Zverev faces the semi-finals of the ATP Rolex Paris Masters 2025 against Jannik Sinner, aware that he was close to victory in Vienna and knowing that a win would restore the lost confidence over months. What should he do to win? Let's analyze.
A week ago, it seemed utopian to think that Alexander Zverev would be in a position to fight for a major title and would have serious chances to defeat Jannik Sinner, but everything has changed. His good performance in Vienna, where he was close to surprising the Italian, and the remarkable display he is showing at the ATP Rolex Paris Masters 2025 suggest the possibility of an upset. To achieve this, he needs to have a very specific tactical approach, as indicated by the data provided by Insights, from TennisViz.
This is what Zverev must do to have a chance to defeat Sinner in Paris
1. Open angles with his serve and hit a high percentage of first serves
The German needs great precision with his serve to be aggressive on the first shot.In Vienna, he managed to displace Jannik with his serve and win many points with the following shot. It is crucial that he avoids second serves, having won only 44% of points played in that context last week.
2. Avoid long rallies
Sascha tends to play somewhat conservatively at times and establish marathon baseline rallies,but against Sinner, it's not a good idea. He discovered this last week in Vienna, where there were 25 points with 9 shots or more, and a total of 16 went to the Italian's side. Even though the current world number 2 may seem somewhat physically affected, Zverev will have to look for quicker points.
3. Change directions with his backhand to disrupt Sinner's rhythm
It is well known that Zverev struggles most with his forehand,especially when he has to play it cross-court. He usually punishes his opponents a lot with his backhand, but against Sinner, he faces one of the best backhands in the world in cross-court exchanges. Therefore, he must take risks by changing directions with his backhand down the line. He had great success when he did this in Vienna and should try it more.
4. Structure his attacks well and be more precise in advantageous positions
One of the aspects that hurt the German in the Vienna final was Sinner's great ability to escape in situations of dominance for Sascha.This is evidenced by Jannik winning 35% of points when in a defensive situation, compared to only 24% by the German in the same context. He will have to be much more surgical when pressing.
5. Improve his return performance
This was the only aspect where there was a notable difference between Sinner and Zverev in the Vienna final,regarding Shot Quality. The German was only able to win 10 points with his opponent's first serve and did not reach 50% when Jannik played with the second serve. It is crucial that he takes advantage of every opportunity that the Italian gives him with his serve.
Conclusion
In conclusion, there are reasons for hope in Alexander Zverev, who is facing a great opportunity to tilt the head-to-head he has with Jannik Sinner. Currently, they are tied at 4-4, but the German has not won a match against the current world number 2 since the US Open 2023, with Sinner having strung together three consecutive victories. This ATP Rolex
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